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Those of you in search of some help in your annual office Oscar pool need look no further (for real though, please don't actually bet anything of value based on my predictions – at least not unless you supply me with written (and signed) consent that you will not seek vengeance when I prove to be largely wrong). I have broken down each Oscar category based upon the likelihood that each nominee has of winning – complete with one-hundred-percent-certifiably-made-up statistics signifying the chance (in easy-to-read numeral form!) that I think each nominee has to win a given category. I will also comment on each category briefly. Also, it is worth mentioning that this is no way representative of my opinions as to the actual merits of any of these films – these are not my endorsements, simply my predictions.
Best Picture:
My Pick: Avatar (45%)
Dark horse: The Hurt Locker (35%)
Darker horse(s): Inglourious Basterds (15%), Up in the Air (5%)
No Shot:The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, Precious, A Serious Man, Disney/Pixar's Up
This is shaping up to be quite an interesting Best Picture race. There are the two “obvious” front-runners - Avatar and The Hurt Locker – which, in other years, would both have very good cases to be the “slam-dunk” choice to win Best Picture on Oscar night. This is, however, not a typical Oscar year. Following last year's Dark-Knight-snub-fest (because nominating the Reader was a great idea!) and struggling ratings, the Academy elected for a rule change – doubling the nominees for the biggest award of the night, and also opening up the ballot to a weighted vote – this year, voters are being asked to rank the nominees in order from 1-10, as opposed to the one voter – one vote method employed in previous years. In theory, this new system should widen the field of films that have a legitimate shot at winning the big award.
My personal hunch is also that a number of these films that made the short list are also quite polarizing.
Avatar will get a big push because of its cutting-edge technology and huge box-office numbers, but having a multi-hundred-million dollar budget and a world-wide gross of over 2-billion dollars might also draw some ire from the more indie-conscious members of the Academy (not to mention that no film has won Best Picture without a screenplay nomination in over 50 years).
At this stage of the race, The Hurt Locker looked to have all the momentum – it had earned all of the most-important pre-Oscar awards – including the Producers Guild award, which is largely considered to be highly predictive of who gets the trophy on Oscar night. In fact, no film has ever earned the pre-Oscar haul that the Hurt Locker has and also lost the Oscar. However, The Hurt Locker also had it's public-image tarnished a bit with the controversy regarding one of the producers e-mailing voters petitioning for 1st place votes for his film and 10th place votes for “that 500 million dollar movie”. Add-in the controversy of the film's war themes and treatment, and it might end up at the bottom of a lot of voters' lists – which might hurt it, even if it can also secure the most first-place votes.
Inglourious Basterds was a film that divided critics, and will likely also divide voters. Tarantino is a director who always seems to split audiences with his genre-fetishism and penchant for (arguably gratuitous) gore and crude dialogue, add to this his controversial re-imagining of WWII, and I can imagine a lot of voters putting it near the bottom of their lists on principal.
With these factors considered, I am of the opinion that this race will be much more wide-open than the media and supposed Oscar-experts and critics are predicting. In the past, this category can generally be narrowed down to a pair of nominees – a single favorite and maybe a strong dark horse, or maybe even two films with even odds going into Oscar night. This year, with the rule changes, I think this category will prove to be much more difficult to predict than the experts think. I think there are four movies that are genuinely in play – Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up in the Air. All four are very different films, and each had their fair share of pre-Oscar buzz, with Avatar and the Hurt Locker garnering most of it recently. Up in the Air intrigues me in particular, because I think it might benefit the most from the weighted voting system. I can see Up in the Air collecting a lot of top 5 votes while I think my other three “finalists” will be intentionally placed at the bottoms of a lot of voters' lists – which could mean the difference in the end.
Nevertheless, I am sticking with Avatar as my pick for this year's winner. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Academy really wants this years Award ceremony to be essentially the popular-choice-awards. If the Hurt Locker won, I believe it would be the lowest-grossing film to ever take home the trophy. Perhaps the Academy will be content with whatever ratings they get as a result of the pre-Oscar buzz and the simple presence of Avatar. I, for one, think they desperately want something with some popular appeal to take home the biggest prize of the show. Nothing has more of that than Avatar.
Best Director:
My Pick: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker (66.666%)
Dark horse: James Cameron - Avatar (30%)
Long Shot: Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds (3.333%)
No Shot: Lee Daniels – Precious, Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
You can take my word on this: Best Director will be a much less competitive race than Best Picture. I tend to agree with the critics who think that Avatar and The Hurt Locker will split the two awards (much like Crash and Brokeback Mountain did at the '06 Oscars). I think the Academy really wants Avatar to walk away with the biggest trophy of the night, and they will try and split the difference by giving the Best Director trophy to Kathryn Bigelow for the Hurt Locker. When she wins, it will be well-deserved. Not to mention, she will be the first woman to ever take home this trophy – it is long overdue, and it will make a great story.
Best Actor:
My Pick: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart (80%)
Dark horse: George Clooney - Up in the Air (12.5%)
Long Shot: Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker (5%)
(Practically) No Shot: Morgan Freeman – Invictus (2%) , Colin Firth - A Single Man (0.5%)
This is a fairly understated year for this category considering some of the recent performances to garner nominations (Sean Penn for Milk, Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler, Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood). The academy tends to award the most bombastic and dominant performances. George Clooney didn't really yell or cry once in Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker was too much of an ensemble piece, with too little dialogue for the academy to hand the award to Jeremy Renner. Jeff Bridges will take home this award and you can more-or-less take that to the bank.
Best Actress:
My Pick: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side (60%)
Dark horse: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia (25%)
Long Shot: Gabourey Sidibe – Precious (10%)
(Practically) No Shot: Carey Mulligan - An Education (2.5%) , Helen Mirren - The Last Station (2.5%)
Of all of the acting awards up for grabs at this year's Oscars, this is the only one that seems even remotely competitive. It is also, unfortunately, the one that I am least familiar with. Of the five nominees, I have seen only an Education and Precious. Both were splendid performances, and I feel like Gabourey Sidibe is being unfairly discounted in all of the pre-Oscar buzz as a non-contender. Heading into Oscar weekend, this race seems tenuously close, but my pick is with Bullock. The academy tends to love everything about that kind of performance – a popular actress rebounding from some truly wretched performances (Bullock might be the first performer to ever win both the “Razzie” and Oscar in the same year) – rewarding a respected Hollywood veteran who has never seen Oscar gold before (versus Meryl Streep who has 16 nominations and 2 trophies already). Not to mention that Bullock has already taken home all of the most meaningful pre-Oscar hardware for this category.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
My Pick: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds (95%)
No Shot: Matt Damon – Invictus (0.5%) , Woody Harrelson - The Messenger (1.5%) , Christopher Plummer - The Last Station (2%), Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones (1%)
It is said that the Academy loves to hand the supporting-awards to actors/actresses who portray villainous characters. I don't know about any of that. But I do know that Christoph Waltz is about the surest pick that you can make in this years Oscars. He won Best Actor at Cannes. I personally feel like his performance would warrant a Best Actor in a leading role nomination (I might even give that to him, personally). Not many actors could nail the quadralingual nazi-psycopath with such comic pathos as well as Waltz. It was a dream role and he nailed it. Not to mention that story that Tarantino has now been telling ever since Cannes (http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2009-05-20-christoph-waltz_N.htm) Christoph Waltz will win this award. Period.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
My Pick: Mo'Nique – Precious (90%)
Long Shot: Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air (7%)
No Shot: Penelope Cruz – Nine (1%), Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air (1%), Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart (1%)
This award is not quite as much of a lock as Waltz is for Supporting Actor, but it's pretty close. As I have already briefly touched upon, when it comes to acting awards, the Academy tends to award the most bombastic – crying and screaming, especially when accompanied by harsh vulgarities and the throwing of physical objects are all a definite plus. Mo'Nique does all of these things in Precious, not to mention the fact that she almost-single-handedly pulls of the most emotionally captivating single scene in any movie that I have seen from 2009. For that scene alone, Mo'Nique will win this award. I have Anna Kendrick on this list as having any chance at all because she apparently managed to nab a few pre-Oscar awards. Nevertheless, I think this is essentially a virtual lock.
Best Original Screenplay:
My Pick: Inglourious Basterds (50%)
Dark horse: The Hurt Locker(35%)
Long Shot(s): A Serious Man (10%), Disney/Pixar's Up (5%)
No Shot: The Messenger
When it comes to screenplays, I have the feeling that the Academy puts a serious premium on dialogue, as it is the primary way in which the average viewer actually experiences the script itself most directly. For this reason, if for no other, I think Inglourious Basterds will take this award. I think the Hurt Locker has the next best shot as a result of the huge amount of buzz that the film is receiving heading into the Oscars. I think A Serious Man had a superb script and should be a serious dark horse for this category, but the utter lack of buzz that the film is getting will kill it. It is also worth mention that the Screenplay category also tends to play like a door-prize. I am predicting that The Hurt Locker will have already won its door prize in the form of Best Director. Basterds received the third most nominations of any film this year, and the two top honors will already be going to other films – the Academy also doesn't want to completely pass on Tarantino taking the stage, after all, he could prove to be another ratings boon, they just aren't ready to commit to him with any of the bigger awards...yet...
Best Adapted Screenplay:
My Pick: Up in the Air(60%)
Dark horse: Precious (35%)
Long Shot: An Education (5%)
No Shot: District 9 , In the Loop
As discussed above, the Screenplay categories generally play out as door-prizes. Up in the Air, Precious, An Education and District 9 are all Best Picture nominees that are going to be contending for this particular door-prize, but I think that Up in the Air will take it fairly easily. In the Loop has no pre-Oscar buzz and was not nominated for the big award, so it can effectively be crossed off. District 9 is a sci-fi film (which the Academy tends to snub), and much of the dialogue was ad-libbed, so it can be crossed off. Which leaves: An Education, Precious, and Up in the Air. Up in the Air happens to be the best of the three films (and, in my opinion, the film with the best chance of the three at Best Picture), and it also has the best dialogue. It will win, but I see there being a chance (if a slim chance) for Precious to sneak in here.
Best Animated Film:
My Pick: Disney/Pixar's Up (90%)
Dark Horse(s): Fantastic Mr. Fox (6%) ,The Princess and the Frog (4%)
Long Shot(s): The Secret of Kells , Coraline
The Academy first began handing out the Best Animated Film Award in 2001 when it was given to Shrek. That was the first (and last) time that Pixar released a film (Monsters, Inc.) that didn't win the award (disregarding Cars, which scarcely deserved to bare the Pixar moniker). Previously, there had only ever been one animated film to have been nominated for Best Picture – Beauty and the Beast (2002 Oscars). Disney/Pixar's Up is now the second. I can't imagine Up being the only animated film to be nominated for Best Picture, to somehow lose this award. That would just be stupid. Up will win this award.
Best Foreign Language Film:
My Pick: The White Ribbon (40%)
Dark Horse: A Prophet (Un Prophete) (30%)
Long Shot(s): Ajami (15%), El Secreto De Sus Ojos (7.5%), The Milk of Sorrow (7.5%)
At this point in my predictions, I become considerably less certain. I have seen none of this year's nominees for best foreign film, but from the research that I have done regarding this race, it would seem like this is going to come down to two: The White Ribbon, and Un Prophete. The White Ribbon might be helped out by it's cinematography nomination (though I felt the same way in 2006 when Pan's Labyrinth won best Cinematography, but lost in this category to the Lives of Others). The White Ribbon is my very guarded pick based only on what I have read. That said, the Foreign Language category always seems to be a bit of a crapshoot.
Best Documentary Feature:
My Pick: The Cove (40%)
Dark horse: Food, Inc. (30%)
Long Shot(s): Burma VJ (10%), Which Way Home (10%), The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (10%)
I feel quite similarly to this year's Best Documentary Feature category as I do to this year's Best Foreign Film category. I have not seen any of the nominees, but from what I have read, the Cove seems like the favorite. The Cove and Food, Inc. from what I have read are both very different styles of documentary, and they both deal in very different subjects. Food, Inc. might well win because it is a scathing exposé of the food industry in America, but I am sticking with the Cove because it is supposedly very tense and gripping – which is a difficult technique to execute with documentaries.
Best Animated Short:
My Pick: A Matter of Loaf and Death (60%)
Dark Horse: Logorama (35%)
No Shot: French Roast (3%), Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (1%), The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) (1%)
This is another two-film race: A Matter of Loaf and Death vs. Logorama. In many ways, this race is almost unfair as the three shorts that I have listed as having no-shot all run under 10 minutes whereas Logorama clocks around 17 and A Matter of Loaf and Death is almost a full 30. Logorama takes an interesting perspective on American consumerism by turning ubiquitous corporate logos into a real-crime-drama, but the kicker is that Nick Park of Wallace and Gromit fame (A Matter of Loaf and Death) has only ever lost at the Oscars when he was competing against himself. A Matter of Loaf and Death will win this award. The academy has quite a soft spot for claymation, and Logorama is a bit too divisive for its own good.
Best Live Action Short:
My Pick: The Door (40%)
Dark Horse(s): Kavi (30%)
Long Shot(s): Instead of Abracadabra (10%), Miracle Fish (10%) , The New Tenants (10%)
I could try and pretend like I know what I'm talking about here, but that's really all I would be doing: making pretend. I have not seen any of these movies. I have chosen the Door because it is about Chernobyl, and because the real experts have favorable things to say about it. I also think that of the still shots of these films that I have seen, The Door looks the most Oscar-y. Take that for what it's worth [read: not much]
Best Documentary Short:
My Pick:China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (30%)
Dark Horse(s): The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (22.5%), Music by Prudence (27.5%)
Long Shot(s): The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (5%), Rabbit a la Berlin (15%)
(see above)
I picked China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province because it has the words “Disaster” and “Tears” in the title. I'm serious. That's really all that I'm basing this particular pick on.
Best Art Direction:
My Pick:Avatar (30%)
Dark Horse(s): Nine (25%), The Young Victoria (20%)
Long Shot(s): The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (12.5%), Sherlock Holmes (12.5%)
This one is tough. Again, I don't have much to go on personally – I have only seen Avatar – and the critics seem split. Some critics seem to be leaning in the direction of Nine. Personally, I picked Avatar because it was the most visually-striking film that came out in 2009 – obviously I can't actually comment on this because I haven't seen all of the movies, but that seems to be the general critical consensus, and it also seems to be the whole freakin' point of Avatar. The biggest issue here, however, is that Avatar so thoroughly blurs the line between “real” and “fake” that the voters might have trouble giving the award to Avatar. Why, for instance, does it deserve Best Art Direction, any better than, say, Up, for instance? Personally, I can't answer that, which is why I'm so torn. Nevertheless, I feel like the visual achievements of Avatar are just too much to pass up. (more on this later)
Best Cinematography:
My Pick:Avatar (32.5%)
Dark Horse(s): The Hurt Locker (30%)
Darker Horses: Inglourious Basterds (27.5%)
Long Shot: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (7.5%), The White Ribbon (2.5%)
(Note: now begins the later that I was referring to above). This is another tough one. The issue here is very similar to that of the problem with picking a winner in the Best Art Direction category. Do the techniques in Avatar truly reflect Cinematography in a way that the Academy can assess and vote on its merits? Isn't Pandora and everything that looked so beautiful just all CGI? In which case, does it really qualify as cinematography? Is it really the work of cameras that made Avatar look beautiful, or was it computers? Similarly, if Avatar is fair game, then where is Up, or Fantastic Mr. Fox – both films that were striking in their own ways. What makes this even more difficult is that Avatar is facing some pretty stiff competition with more classical techniques. The Hurt Locker is probably favored over Inglourious Basterds, but both are beautifully filmed. I'm sticking with Avatar because, again, it was the most striking-looking film of the bunch.
Best Costume Design:
My Pick:Coco Before Chanel (32.5%)
Dark Horse: Nine (30%)
Darker Horse: The Young Victoria (27.5%)
Long Shot: Bright Star(5%), The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (5%)
Here's another complete guess. I have seen none of these films, and I know unfortunately little about the merits of costume design. Nine seems to be a popular pick. The academy also generally loves to give this award to period pieces with big-period costumes. Hence, a three-way race between Coco Before Chanel, Nine, and the Young Victoria. I am going to take the advice of Roger Ebert (http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100219/OSCARS/100219964) and go with Coco Before Chanel because isn't it a movie about a clothing designer? Thus, shouldn't the costumes be the focus of the movie?
Best Film Editing:
My Pick:The Hurt Locker (35%)
Dark Horse(s): Avatar(25%), Inglourious Basterds (20%), District 9 (20%)
Long Shot: Precious
This is another toss-up. I would consider this a fairly even four-way race between the four nominees sans Precious. All four are technical tours-de-force and I certainly am not trained to discern between the four to pick a technical award of this nature. My vote is with the Hurt Locker because it is the movie that seems to rely most on the technical adeptness of its editing. Avatar, Basterds, and District 9 all have other sorts of stylistic flourishes to hide behind. If the editing in the Hurt Locker was anything less than exceptional, I feel it would have been the easiest to notice.
Best Original Score:
My Pick: Disney/Pixar's Up (45%)
Dark Horse(s): Avatar (25%)
Long Shot(s): Fantastic Mr. Fox (15%) , The Hurt Locker(10%), Sherlock Holmes (5%)
Up seems to be viewed by enough critics and experts in this category to be a fairly solid favorite. I would say this is probably a pretty standard breakdown of favorite to dark horse with Up and Avatar occupying those two respective positions.
Best Original Song:
My Pick: "The Weary Kind" - Crazy Heart (65%)
Dark Horse(s): "Almost There" - The Princess and the Frog (20%) , "Down in New Orleans" - The Princess and the Frog (15%)
Long Shot(s): "Loin de Paname" - Paris 36 , "Take It All" - Nine
The Weary Kind will win this award. Of the five songs nominated, I think only three stand out, and of those three, I think the Weary Kind stands out the most (after all, the other two are from the same movie – and would likely split those votes anyways). The two Disney offerings represent a return to “classic 2D Disney”, but they are also fairly uninspired when held up against some of Disney's finest. Also, The Weary Kind has an integral emotional component that is directly tied to the film, that as far as I know, the other songs lack.
Best Makeup:
My Pick: Star Trek (75%)
Long Shot(s): Il Divo (5%), The Young Victoria (10%)
Umm...Star Trek will win this award I guess. I haven't seen a single expert pick otherwise. It seems to be a fairly weak year for this category compared to say, Pan's Labyrinth or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button...
Best Visual Effects:
My Pick: Avatar (98%)
No Shot: District 9 (1.5%), Star Trek (0.5%)
On the other hand, this is a pretty strong showing for this category. All three nominees are solid and do very different things that are all equally impressive, with vastly different budget sizes. That said, this is the single easiest category to pick in the entire Oscars. Avatar is leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. No contest.
Best Sound Editing:
My Pick: The Hurt Locker (35%)
Dark Horse: Avatar (25%) , Disney/Pixar's Up (20%)
Long Shot(s): Inglourious Basterds (15%) , Star Trek (10%)
I'm going almost entirely off of this article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/magazine/21FOB-medium-t.html
which seems pretty reasonable to me. Much like with Sound Editing, The Hurt Locker seems to be the most obvious fit because it relies so completely on these technical subtleties for its success. Obviously, every film is made better with great sound editing (and these, again, are all great examples of great sound editing) but The Hurt Locker still seems to be operating on a different plane than it's competition in this category.
Best Sound Mixing:
My Pick: Avatar (35%)
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker (25%)
Long Shot(s): Inglourious Basterds (10%), Star Trek (10%) , Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (10%)
I suspect Avatar will win this. I read somewhere one of the experts had written: “Sound Mixing will go to the best sounding film of the year – Avatar”. Personally, I don't really know anything about that, but it seems reasonable, and it probably wouldn't be too much of a stretch to assume that it'll get a boost from the other 4 wins (and every single technical nomination that it received) it will get Sunday evening.
Totals:
Avatar: 5
The Hurt Locker: 3
Inglourious Basterds: 2
Up: 2
Up in the Air: 1
Crazy Heart: 2
Precious: 1
The Blind Side: 1
Well, there you have it. I think Avatar will win the overall Oscar count and it will also win the biggest award of the night. Then again, I think there is a very high probability that I will be wrong. Regardless, I know that I am excited for this year's Oscars. I think that 2009 was a fine year for films, and I look for the Oscars to be a celebration of those achievements. There will be a lot of great story-lines to look out for. Will Avatar be the first film in over 50 years to take home the big trophy without a screenplay nomination? Will The Hurt Locker be able to weather the producer-controversy and overcome its box-office-underdog status or will it be the first film with such a decorated pre-Oscar trophy-case to fail to take home the big trophy? Will the Academy finally give a woman or an African-American the Best Director Trophy, or will one of the other three nominees score an upset? Personally, I am excited to see Christoph Waltz take the stage for his best Supporting Actor Award. I think it will be a good show.
For those of you who are interested in reading some of the opinions of the 'real' [read: paid] experts first-hand, check out some of these links:
L.A. Times Awards Blog.Yahoo User Poll (with expert Picks).Richard Corliss' picks (Time)At the Movies
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